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A web-based system to monitor and predict healthcare activity

Information and Statistics Division, Gyle Square, 1 South Gyle Crescent, Edinburgh EH12 9EB, Scotland, hbrown3{at}inf.ed.ac.uk

The UK National Health Service is subject to variation in demand for medical services, particularly during the winter. The article describes System Watch, a real-time system developed to assist with hospital bed management in NHS Scotland by monitoring and predicting activity within hospitals and the primary care sector. System Watch gathers daily hospital numbers of emergency admissions and beds occupied by emergencies. It uses this and other information to model long- and short-term demand for emergency bed admissions and present predictions in a graphical form through a web-based user interface. The article evaluates the accuracy of predictions and the initial experience of the use of System Watch by bed managers. The results indicate that System Watch’s accuracy is sufficient for planning purposes at both health board area and hospital level. Finally, additional possible uses of System Watch are described and future developments outlined.

Key Words: bed occupancy • emergency callouts • healthcare demand • hospital activity • illness rates

Health Informatics Journal, Vol. 11, No. 1, 63-79 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/1460458205050686


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